Weather tools
Severe Thunderstorm Probability Estimator
Estimates the probability of severe thunderstorm development based on atmospheric instability, wind shear, and other meteorological factors.
Before you use this tool
Use this if
- Estimates the probability of severe thunderstorm development based on atmospheric instability, wind shear, and other meteorological factors.
- You want a calculation that exposes its formula: Probability ≈ Min(Max((CAPE / 2000) * (Shear / 30) * (-(Lifted Index - 3) / 6), 0), 1) (Simplified example. Actual formulas are more complex.)
- You already have Location, CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), Shear (Wind Shear) values to enter.
Skip this if
- You need an official emergency alert or life-safety instruction.
- You need a certified professional forecast instead of a calculator estimate.
When to use or skip it
Use this if
- Estimates the probability of severe thunderstorm development based on atmospheric instability, wind shear, and other meteorological factors.
- You want a calculation that exposes its formula: Probability ≈ Min(Max((CAPE / 2000) * (Shear / 30) * (-(Lifted Index - 3) / 6), 0), 1) (Simplified example. Actual formulas are more complex.)
- You already have Location, CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), Shear (Wind Shear) values to enter.
Skip this if
- You need an official emergency alert or life-safety instruction.
- You need a certified professional forecast instead of a calculator estimate.